Surpassing:MLB trade deadline: Should these bubble teams buy or sell?

The Surpassingcountdown to the Major League Baseball trade deadline is on, has been for months now if you’re a real transaction stan. Yet we are now reaching the earnest run-up – T-minus one week and counting – and perhaps the most foundational question has not yet been answered.

Who’s in, and who’s out?

With 12 teams boasting playoff odds hovering at or well above 50% and just six teams – the White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Rockies, Nationals and Marlins – almost certainly out, that leaves a dozen franchises still straddling whether to buy or sell by the July 30 deadline.

That makes this upcoming week of games even more crucial than usual.

With that, a look at 12 teams whose play the next week may answer the buy-sell question and, perhaps more important, to which degree:

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American League

Boston Red Sox

Record, standing: 53-46, two games out of third wild card, seven games out of AL East lead

Playoff odds, per FanGraphs: 34.3%

The final week: At Rockies (2), vs. Yankees (3), vs. Mariners (1)

Outlook: They’ve won 23 of their last 37 to turn another nondescript, perhaps cellar-dwelling year, into a real playoff shot, thanks largely to a rotation whose 3.67 ERA ranks fifth in the AL. But the bullpen has blown five late-inning saves since the All-Star break. At least they know what's needed.

Verdict: Buy. It might behoove Fenway Sports Group to urge a few pickups, if only to make it appear the Red Sox aren’t the forgotten child of this global sports behemoth. Expect some light purchases befitting their uncertain station in life.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record, standing: 50-50, five games out of third wild card, 10 ½ games out of AL East lead

Playoff odds: 17.3%

The final week: At Blue Jays (3), vs. Reds (3)

Outlook: They took a pretty big L on Monday, losing a matinee to the Yankees that resulted in a four-game split rather than an encouraging three wins in four games. With starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen already starting rehab assignments in returns from elbow surgery, the roster will get a boost, although slugger Yandy Diaz remains on the restricted list.

Verdict: Buy and sell. It’d be a bad look politically to cash in the chips with a multi-billion dollar stadium project still in the public approval process. If the club feels good about Springs and Rasmussen’s returns, it could fetch a nice return dealing Zach Eflin into a starved pitching market while strengthening areas of need.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record, standing: 45-54, 10 games out of third wild card, 15 games out of AL East lead

Playoff odds: 1.2%

The final week: vs. Rays (3), vs. Rangers (3), at Orioles (2)

Outlook: Oh, they’re totally cooked. But we throw the Jays in here because selling can take on so many forms: Picking around the edges (Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen), digging into actual assets (Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman), going nuclear (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette).

Verdict: Sell. There’s just too much committed to 2025 to cash it all in now, and there may not be a ton of faith in the current GM to deftly pull off such an implosion. So expect the fungible parts to go, and maybe a couple other nailed-down pieces if this upcoming week gets ugly.

Detroit Tigers

Record, standing: 50-51, six games out of third wild card, 10 games out of AL Central lead

Playoff odds: 10.3%

The final week: At Guardians (3), vs. Twins (3), vs. Guardians (1)

Outlook: Seven games vs. the Nos. 1-2 teams in their division ought to knock any ambiguity out of the Tigers’ plight. They’ve played their way into uncertainty, as Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal and rookie second baseman Colt Keith – who batted .152 with a .399 OPS in his first 30 games, .300/.844 in 59 games since – helped spark 12 wins in their last 17 games.

Verdict: Sell. Gently. Tough to see them dent those playoff deficits significantly this week, but any concept of a sell-off – like dealing Skubal two years before free agency as things are otherwise coalescing – is absurd.

Texas Rangers

Record, standing: 48-52, 7 ½ games out of third wild card, four games out of AL West lead

Playoff odds: 14.4%

The final week: vs. White Sox (3), at Blue Jays (3), at Cardinals (1)

Outlook: A real maddening title defense in Texas, where a slow start morphed into a mini-rally while awaiting the return of three injured pitchers. Max Scherzer returned, but now has a fatigued arm. Tyler Mahle is on the rehab trail and might be back next month, while Jacob deGrom is a good bit behind him, throwing bullpen sessions.

Verdict: Hold. They can’t expect much out of the returning arms, but the stunningly mediocre AL West means it’d be foolish for any contender to pack it in.

National League

New York Mets

Record, standing: 51-48, half-game lead for third wild card, 11 ½ games out of NL East lead

Playoff odds: 43.5%

The final week: At Yankees (2), vs. Braves (4), vs. Twins (1)

Outlook: The vibes are strong, as they say, and the Mets are proud to have earned the right to buy – or at least not get split up. Kodai Senga’s return should also buoy them. After this challenging week, nine of the next 13 games are against the Angels, Rockies, A’s and Marlins.

Verdict: Buy. Outside of bounceback right-hander Luis Severino, there’s not a ton of sellable assets, anyway. And fortifying the bullpen would give this group a legit – and surprising – wild card shot.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record, standing: 51-49, half-game out of third wild card, six games out of NL Central lead

Playoff odds: 25.9%

The final week: vs. Cardinals (2), at Diamondbacks (3), at Astros (1)

Outlook: Call it the Skenes Effect if you must: The Pirates were 17-22 without the 6-6 right-hander and 34-27 since his May 11 debut; they’re also 8-3 in games he starts. Can they hit? Perhaps they’re waking up; much-derided first baseman Rowdy Tellez was batting .177 with a .463 OPS on June 1; he’s now at .246/.680.

Verdict: Buy. Even if it’s just a symbolic bench bat or bullpen arm, the beleaguered fans of Pittsburgh deserve something resembling love and trust.

Chicago Cubs

Record, standing: 49-53, 3 ½ games out of third wild card, nine games out of NL Central lead

Playoff odds: 10.7%

The final week: vs. Brewers (2), at Royals (3), vs. Reds (1)

Outlook: A brief surge of momentum toward the end of the first half was blunted by losing four of six before and after the break. A lineup that ranks 10^th in the NL in runs and 12^th in OPS (.689) rarely fires on enough cylinders to support decent pitching.

Verdict: Hold. It would be insulting to Wrigley Field supporters to subtract from this stalled-out team, but the market is so tight that the cost would be prohibitive to augment such an arrhythmic group.

Cincinnati Reds

Record, standing: 48-53, four games out of third wild card, 9 ½ games out of NL Central lead

Playoff odds: 5.5%

The final week: At Braves (2), at Rays (3), vs. Cubs (1)

Outlook: As fun and promising as this group is, they haven’t seen the .500 mark since May 3, when they were 16-16. While the NL Central is typically the perfect spot for a club to drag its heels and snatch a playoff berth at the end, this is not one of those seasons.

Verdict: Sell. Matt McLain’s season-long absence due to a shoulder injury has dogged this group and they actually have some veteran assets (pitchers Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, most notably) worth spinning off.

San Diego Padres

Record, standing: 52-50, half-game out of third wild card, eight games out of NL West lead

Playoff odds: 45%

The final week: at Nationals (3), at Orioles (3)

Outlook: GM A.J. Preller doesn’t have nine lives, but he does have a catlike grace to pivot when aggressive moves don’t pan out. His latest act: Concocting a contender from the ashes of the Juan Soto era, as pitchers Michael King and Dylan Cease are firmly connected to that trade tree.

Verdict: Buy. Preller rarely stands on the sidelines and his two trade acquisitions are throwing the ball too well to be ignored.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record, standing: 51-50, one game out of third wild card, eight games out of NL West lead

Playoff odds: 38.2%

The final week: At Royals (2), vs. Pirates (3), vs. Nationals (1)

Outlook: This looked to be The Hangover, Part II, but the Diamondbacks have rallied from their post-World Series stupor to angle into playoff position. And with Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery due to return soon from injury, they are only getting stronger.

Verdict: Buy. Part pragmatism, part vibes. A core that’s proven it can get to the World Series and a fan base that’s come back strong deserve as much, particularly in the bullpen.

San Francisco Giants

Record, standing: 48-53, four games out of third wild card, 12 games out of NL West lead

Playoff odds: 17.3%

The final week: At Dodgers (3), vs. Rockies (4)

Outlook: A perfect final-week trial to determine their fate: Battling the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine while hoping to mop up at home against the last-place Rockies. This club has been dogged by an inability to take care of business against weaker opponents.

Verdict: Hold. The group hasn’t earned any significant cookies from the front office, but it’s worth seeing what returning pitchers Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb can offer – along with the gradual emergence of Blake Snell.