PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Buck Showalter makes Baltimore return amid Mets' mess: 'Game will knock you to your knees'

BALTIMORE – Two planets in Buck Showalter’s baseball universe finally collided Friday night,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center and try as he might, the four-time Manager of the Year finally assigned the moment some significance.

At 67, Showalter might be in the final chapter of his managerial tome, and it is not unfolding as he’d pen it. Showalter’s New York Mets just waved the white flag on a ballclub featuring the biggest payroll in baseball history, so his return to Camden Yards – where he revived a moribund franchise and guided the Baltimore Orioles to three playoff berths in five years – was not covered in glory.

And in a twist only the most optimistic Orioles fan could have imagined, his old place has never looked better.

Oh, it’s not because of Nicole Sherry, the head groundskeeper who Showalter marvels keeps the field in such good shape. Nor is the monstrosity that’s risen under the freeway overpass near Camden Yards – “They got a, what’s that golf, now, TopGolf?,” Showalter mused – right next to the casino.

No, it’s just that his old club, after five mostly dark years of falling apart and rebuilding and reloading, is practically the envy of baseball, with the best record in the American League and a bevy of young and on-the-way superstars.

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For three days at Camden Yards, that will be juxtaposed against the Mets’ failings, a year that started with a $501 million offseason spending spree, a $365 million payroll – and then the stunning trade of $43 million aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander amid a 50-58 season.

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“You wanna make the baseball gods laugh?” Showalter said before Friday’s series opener. “Tell ‘em your plans. Nobody’s that smart.”

Strangely, though, that’s worked out well for his old club.

While Showalter guided the Orioles to wild-card berths in 2012 and 2016 and the club’s only AL East title since 1997 in 2014, an anachronistic infrastructure and years of trying to contend left the club outdated and bereft of talent.

It all fell apart in 2018, with 118 losses and the relatively easy decision for Baltimore to move on from GM Dan Duquette and Showalter. Few hard feelings, really.

And then the new regime – GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde – said what they were going to do and pretty much did it.

Two more 100-loss seasons followed – including a 110-loss campaign in 2021 – before four years of drafting high and Elias preaching patience paid off. These Orioles are 67-42, almost certainly headed ot the playoffs and likely to enjoy a sustainability Showalter never found in Charm City.

“I guarantee you Brandon and Mike have expectations every year privately,” Showalter says of his successors, “that a guy will develop quicker than you thought, an injury will be behind somebody. You always think best-case scenario, privately.

“Some years you ended up being real good and there’s times in the year you didn’t think you’d win a game. This game will knock you to your knees if you think you got it figured out.”

Right now, it is the Mets in that prone position, so Showalter will allow himself a little time to revel in the Orioles’ success. Such as the players he managed or enjoyed in the organization while he was here – outfielders Austin Hays and Anthony Santander and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, most notably.

He’ll allow the old regime a point of pride should All-Star closer Felix Bautista close out a game, knowing the Orioles signed him during the Duquette-Showalter era after the Marlins released Bautista.

And he did conjure up some sentimental moments Friday, such as the fan reception after the club returned from an AL Division Series sweep of the Detroit Tigers in 2014. Of a stroll with his son that took them through the iconic Pickles pub across from Camden Yards before a playoff game.

And the notion of his family growing older here with the fans. Soon after, it was sparse crowds and 100-loss seasons and a pandemic that quieted Camden Yards.

Friday, a crowd of 35,000 was expected, and even more on Saturday. The good times are back, a period Showalter experienced himself.

“They’re waiting to embrace you. You gotta give them something to embrace you about,” says Showalter. “There’s an excuse around every corner if you’re willing to go there.

“The way baseball’s structured, everybody can compete if you know who you are and how you need to go about it.”

When asked whether he was concerned with whatever reception the Camden Yards crowd might give him, Showalter demurred, saying it's the players' game and that he'd like to stay in the clubhouse until first pitch. Some 90 minutes later, a highlight reel of Showalter's Baltimore tenure played on the video board.

And Showalter was on the railing, in a different dugout with a far different perspective, yet still allowing a moment to reflect.